What makes Super Tuesday so Super?

What makes Super Tuesday so SUPER?
Super Tuesday is still relatively young in terms of the political process, the first such collective assembly of Primaries having been held on March 8, 1988. Super Tuesday evolved (notice I specifically say evolved and not improved) from smaller regional Primaries held in the 70’s and 80’s. In 1980 & 1984 Florida, Alabama, and Georgia all voted on the same day of the second week in March. This was the foundation for what we now recognize as Super Tuesday. In 1988, 16 states each held their Primaries on March 8, signaling the birth of Super Tuesday as we now know it.

Today, February 5th marks the earliest day of the year that the amalgamated Primaries and Caucuses have been held. 24 states will vote today to determine their choices for Republican and Democratic delegates to be sent to the upcoming National Conventions.

This raises a few additional questions such as what is a Caucus vs. a Primary? What are delegates? What is the National Convention?

A Primary is essentially a mini-election. That is to say, voters simply go and cast their votes for their candidate of choice. A Caucus on the other hand is a mini-convention, and therefore a little bit more involved. Votes are still cast at a Caucus, however party members and voters also gather beforehand to hear/make short speeches (typically 30-seconds +/-) and discuss the political issues in an open forum prior to the actual opening of the polls. The Caucus format allows party members to present a final argument for support of their particular candidate prior to the vote.

The result of both the Primaries and Caucuses is the selection of delegates. Each state is assigned a specific number of "pledged" delegates, based on population. For example, at stake in the 2004 election in Colorado were 69 Democratic delegates and 46 Republican delegates. So, let’s say that a Democratic candidate received 30% of the vote at the Colorado Caucus, this will translate to roughly 20 delegates representing that candidate at the Democratic convention. The same holds true for the Republican Candidates (in this case 30% of the vote would equate to roughly 15 delegates. On the Democratic side however, a candidate must receive at least 15% of the vote in order to receive ANY delegates. In addition to the pledged delegates, the Democratic Party also has what are known as "unpledged" or "superdelegates", which make up 15% of the total delegate voting pool. These superdelegates are high-ranking party officials and elected officials such as DNC members, Governors, and Congressional Representatives. They have the ability to vote to nominate any candidate they choose, and ultimately are not restricted by the state’s popular vote. Conversely, on the Republican side, certain states participate in a winner-take-all system, awarding all of their delegates to the Primary/Caucus victor. Colorado is such a state. You can think of Super Tuesday as the Political Playoffs.

This all leads us to the National Conventions. The 2008 Democratic National Convention is actually going to be held at the Pepsi Center here in Denver from Monday August 25th through Thursday August 28th. The Republican National Convention is scheduled the following week Monday September 1 (Labor Day) through Thursday September 5th at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota.

So, what happens at the National Conventions? These are essentially the AFC/NFC Championship games of Presidential Politics. The delegates that were selected at the state level during the Primaries and Caucuses attend their respective National Conventions to cast their votes. A candidate must receive a majority vote in order to receive the party’s nomination. In a race where only two candidates are vying for their party nomination, it has become essentially de facto (i.e. a predetermined and foregone conclusion) as to who will receive the nomination. When this is the case (as it has been for over the past 20 years), the Conventions are little more than glorified dog and pony shows; public celebrations of candidacy. This year however, with four candidates still in the hunt for the Republican nomination, we could in fact be headed for what is known as a brokered convention. If more than two candidates end up being represented at the Republican National Convention, then it is highly conceivable that NO candidate could receive the requisite majority (51%) to secure the nomination in the first round of voting. If this is the case, then the Convention becomes brokered. We haven’t seen a brokered convention in over 50 years. The Democrats had one in 1952; the Republicans in 1948. Think of a brokered convention as a Playoff game going into overtime. In subsequent rounds of voting, delegates are free to vote their conscience as it were. Say for example that Colorado has delegates representing three different Republican candidates at the National Convention. During the first round of voting, these delegates are required to vote for the specific candidate for whom they were selected to represent. In subsequent rounds however, all the gloves come off. Delegates are no longer encumbered by the restriction to vote specifically for their candidate. Perhaps in the time (seven months) since the Caucus (February) to the Convention (September), a delegate has decided (or been convinced) that they’d rather vote for a candidate other than their own. After the first round, when the Convention becomes brokered, they can now vote for that new candidate. After the dust settles today, we’ll see if such a scenario remains likely come September. With four Republican candidates heading into Super Tuesday, today could be do-or-die for more than one candidate. Although a brokered Democratic convention also still remains possible, I personally don’t think it is very likely.

The winners of the Democratic & Republican National Conventions then head to the big show (i.e. the Super Bowl of politics) on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. In 2008, U.S. Election day will be November 4th. This is the day that registered voters cast their POPULAR votes for their Presidential candidate of choice. Although we like to think of this day determining who our next President will be, in actuality this is not guaranteed to be the case. The results of the popular vote may not necessarily stand since the ELECTORAL COLLEGE has not cast its vote yet.

Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution, provides for the creation of the Electoral College. The Electoral College can be thought of more in terms of College Football. If the popular vote held on Election Day is likened to each teams’ individual season records determining the top seeded College teams to play in the National Championship (and assorted other Bowl Games), then the Electoral College is akin to the BCS either confirming or disputing those results. For example in 2000, TCU went undefeated thanks in great part to Heisman-contender running back LaDainian Tomlinson, yet were ultimately ranked only 14th. Granted, there are more factors involved in determining their ranking (Press polls, Coaches’ polls, season schedule, etc.), but I think you get the point. Although TCU may have been greatly favored as one of the top contenders for the National Championship, the BCS system contradicted this "popular" sentiment. Similarly, the Electoral College has the power to overrule the popular vote.

Each state has a number of Electors equal to the total number of its U.S. Representatives and U.S. Senators for a total of 538 Electors in the "College". Candidates need 270 Electoral votes to win the Presidency. Colorado is a winner-take-all state and currently has 9 Electoral Votes. As an interesting sidebar, the year that Colorado received statehood - 1876 - Rutherford B. Hayes won the Presidential election by the narrowest margin of 1 electoral vote. As Colorado had just been admitted to the Union, instead of holding elections, the state opted to appoint electors. He had zero popular votes in Colorado, but won Colorado’s three Electoral votes, which ultimately garnered him the Presidency. This is the only time in U.S. history that an election was decided by the support of a "small" state, and one of only 4 times that a candidate lost the popular vote, but still won the Presidency due to the votes of the Electoral College; Elections in 1824 (Adams vs. Jackson), 1888 (Harrison vs. Cleveland), and most recently in 2000 (Gore vs. Bush Jr.). G.W. Bush’s controversial "win" in 2000 was again by a single Electoral vote, due to the hotly contested issues in the winner-take-all state Florida. Under the 12th Amendment, if no candidate secures a majority of the Electoral votes, the decision then moves to the Houses of Representatives; Elections in both 1801 (Jefferson vs. Burr), and 1825 (Jackson vs. Adams) were decided by the House of Representatives. Electoral votes for President and Vice President are not officially cast until the Monday following the second Wednesday in December when they are then sent to the President of the Senate, to be opened on January 6th. So technically, this is when a President and VP are actually announced. At noon on January 20th, the winners are sworn into office.